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Steam Summer Sale 2022 - Game Predictions and Discounts

The Steam Summer Sale 2022 has gamers asking the annual question - which games will be on sale? Here's our predictions and entirely scientific reasoning!

 

Steam Summer Sale 2022 - Game Predictions and Discounts

 

When is the next summer sale? - The Steam Summer Sale 2022  is estimated to be June 23 - July 7

The Steam Summer Sale, bestowed upon us by Lord Gabien, is one of the wonders of the world. Millions of gamers check their inbox to find their wishlisted games are discounted to an historically low price. Those who don't want to waste time with email will constantly refresh their screens until the sale finally goes live, and cram their basket with massively discounted bargains.

It doesn't matter that we probably won't get round to playing that indie modern classic or intriguing puzzle-platformer for nearly three months. It doesn't matter that we bought a DLC for a game we haven't touched for six months. What matters is - it was a bargain.

 

Lord Gabien Strikes Again - Steam Summer Sale

 

The interesting thing about the Steam Summer Sale is that it is entirely unpredictable. There are always shock discounts on big titles, and there are always surprises in store for gamers. But is it entirely unpredictable? We investigated the possibility of predicting the games that will appear in the sale. This extremely scientific and mathematical endeavour was carried out with one main goal: to look back in July 2022 and see if we were right.

How The Predictions Were Made

Although the gamers of Reddit would have you believe there is no way to predict the Steam Summer Sale games (or any sale for that matter) we found that there is some credence in looking at historical data. Some Redditors offered their way of predicting games only to be shot down by the cynical few, and it seems the maths just weren't strong enough to hold up to the glare of the most divisive community on earth.

The science & maths at CCL, however, is very strong.

Step 1: Don't Look Back In Anger

The first thing we needed to do was look at the Steam Summer Sale 2021, to see which games were discounted. This was not a pleasant experience, for the most part, considering we were basically looking at a list of games we could have bought. It turns out I had missed out on the much-loved shinobi action adventure Sekiro at 50% off.

The selection of games was vast, but only a handful of surprise discounts on the AAA titles. Indie developers got their moment in the sun, however, with excellent discounts on gems like Don't Starve Together, Fall Guys and Valheim. There were also a few hidden classics like Hearts of Iron IV and Banner Saga Deluxe Pack.

As it turned out, Reddit was quite jaded last year, and less than pleased with the selection of games in the 2021 Summer Sale:

 

Steam Summer Sale Reddit Comments

 

Reddit Reacts To Steam Sale

 

It was at this point the spreadsheets were built. We began to list all of the titles that appeared in the Steam Summer Sale of 2021, and noted the price of each game. Special thanks to the hugely valued work the moderators do over at r/GameDeals. I pooled all of the data from this thread, and entered it into a master spreadsheet of 357 games over 14 days of the Steam Summer Sale 2021.

Step 2: Keep Your Eye On The Money

The next step was going to be a little more difficult. We were going to track back over the price history of the list of games on sale and see when the most recent discount appeared. We were looking to find any correlation between recent discounts and Steam Sale discounts.

It made the most sense to only include games that had a 50% discount or better. We would be using data from SteamDB, which is easily the most reliable database of Steam prices and historical data.

We would then take this list of games, and check if they had been discounted in the last three months (March, April, and May 2021).

An excellent example would be Arizona Sunshine. This was in the Summer Sale for 50% off. Below, the rectangle box shows the Summer Sale period from June 24th, and the arrows show the other two discounted prices in April and May.

 

Arizona Sunshine Price Over Time

 

All that remained was to do this for the 205 games that were discounted 50% or more.

The games that made it to the final list were:

Title Disc. £GBP
Arizona Sunshine® 50% 11.89
Automobilista 2 50% 17.49
Battle Brothers 50% 11.49
Beyond The Wire 50% 13.89
Beyond: Two Souls 50% 7.99
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night 50% 17.49
Call to Arms 50% 6.49
Children of Morta 50% 9.24
Crash Bandicoot™ N. Sane Trilogy 50% 34.99
Deep Rock Galactic 50% 12.49
Desperados III 50% 22.49
Destroy All Humans! 50% 12.49
Detroit: Become Human 50% 14.99
FaceRig 50% 6.49
Football Manager 2021 50% 19.99
Forza Horizon 4 50% 27.49
Gang Beasts 50% 7.49
Garry's Mod 50% 3.49
Ghostrunner 50% 12.49
Golf It! 50% 2.99
Holdfast: Nations At War 50% 7.49
Hollow Knight 50% 5.49
Hunt: Showdown 50% 17.99
Insurgency: Sandstorm 50% 12.99
Intruder 50% 7.74
Journey 50% 5.69
Monster Train 50% 9.74
No Man's Sky 50% 19.99
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ 50% 24.99
Ori and the Will of the Wisps 50% 12.49
Out of the Park Baseball 22 50% 15.49
Papers, Please 50% 3.49
PLAYERUNKNOWN'S BATTLEGROUNDS 50% 13.49
Post Scriptum 50% 12.25
Predator: Hunting Grounds 50% 10.62
Project Hospital 50% 11.24
Rivals of Aether 50% 11.89
Rust 50% 30.99
Saints Row®: The Third™ Remastered 50% 17.49
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 50% 24.95
Serious Sam 4 50% 15.49
Slay the Spire 50% 9.74
SpongeBob SquarePants: Battle for Bikini Bottom - Rehydrated 50% 24.99
Starbound 50% 5.99
Stick Fight: The Game 50% 1.99
Subnautica 50% 12.49
Tabletop Simulator 50% 7.49
Terraria 50% 3.49
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS 50% 22.49
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator 50% 7.74
Transport Fever 2 50% 15.99
Trials of Mana 50% 19.99
Tropico 6 50% 17.49
Ultimate Chicken Horse 50% 5.49
Untitled Goose Game 50% 7.74
Wasteland 3 50% 27.49
We Were Here Together 50% 10.29
Wreckfest 50% 13.37
UBOAT 53% 11.18
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 5 55% 20.92
Forager 55% 6.74
Overcooked! 2 55% 8.99
Pathfinder: Kingmaker - Enhanced Plus Edition 55% 7.19
Planet Zoo 55% 15.74
Project Winter 55% 6.97
Unrailed! 55% 7.19
Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey 60% 13.19
Assetto Corsa Competizione 60% 13.99
Barotrauma 60% 8.59
Black Mesa 60% 5.99
Command & Conquer™ Remastered Collection 60% 7.19
Control Ultimate Edition 60% 13.99
Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony 60% 12.39
DEATH STRANDING 60% 21.99
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 60% 11.99
Due Process 60% 7.79
Fallout 4 60% 7.99
FINAL FANTASY XIV: Shadowbringers 60% 11.99
FOR HONOR™ 60% 4.99
Gears 5 60% 13.99
Journey To The Savage Planet 60% 9.99
Northgard 60% 9.51
Oxygen Not Included 60% 7.59
PC Building Simulator 60% 5.99
Remnant: From the Ashes 60% 12.39
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 60% 13.99
Street Fighter V 60% 6.39
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition 60% 11.99
The Outer Worlds 60% 19.99
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six® Siege 60% 6.79
Trailmakers 60% 7.79
Witch It 60% 6.39
Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist : Link Evolution 60% 13.99
Car Mechanic Simulator 2018 62% 5.69
STAR WARS™: Squadrons 63% 12.94
Torchlight III 63% 11.46
DJMAX RESPECT V 65% 11.54
Spyro™ Reignited Trilogy 65% 12.24
Thief Simulator 65% 5.42
Train Simulator 2021 65% 8.74
Blasphemous 66% 6.79
Don't Starve Together 66% 3.73
Dying Light 66% 8.49
For The King 66% 5.26
Human: Fall Flat 66% 5.43
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 66% 8.49
My Time At Portia 66% 8.49
Plague Inc: Evolved 66% 4.07
Total War: WARHAMMER II 66% 13.59
ARK: Survival Evolved 67% 7.85
Borderlands 3 67% 16.49
DOOM Eternal 67% 16.49
DRAGON BALL Z: KAKAROT 67% 16.49
Dungeons 3 67% 8.9
Fallout 76 67% 11.54
Frostpunk 67% 8.24
Generation Zero® 67% 7.09
Graveyard Keeper 67% 5.11
PGA TOUR 2K21 67% 16.49
Railway Empire 67% 8.9
Resident Evil 3 67% 16.49
The Long Dark 67% 7.85
7 Days to Die 70% 5.69
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 70% 14.99
Conan Exiles 70% 10.19
GreedFall 70% 13.19
Metro Exodus 70% 10.49
Mortal Kombat 11 70% 11.99
Naval Action 70% 4.64
ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 70% 11.99
Outward 70% 10.49
Slime Rancher 70% 4.49
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 70% 7.49
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands 70% 12.59
Undertale 70% 2.09
A Plague Tale: Innocence 75% 9.99
A Way Out 75% 6.24
ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN 75% 12.49
Age of Wonders: Planetfall 75% 10.49
American Truck Simulator 75% 3.74
Arma 3 75% 5.99
Batman™: Arkham Knight 75% 3.99
Battlefield V 75% 13.74
BATTLETECH 75% 8.74
BioShock Infinite 75% 4.99
Celeste 75% 3.74
Cities: Skylines 75% 5.74
CODE VEIN 75% 9.99
DARK SOULS™ III 75% 9.99
DiRT Rally 2.0 75% 4.49
Elite Dangerous 75% 4.99
Euro Truck Simulator 2 75% 3.74
Europa Universalis IV 75% 8.74
F1® 2020 75% 11.24
Fable Anniversary 75% 6.74
Grim Dawn 75% 4.99
Hearts of Iron IV 75% 8.74
Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice 75% 6.24
Imperator: Rome 75% 8.74
INSIDE 75% 3.74
Iron Harvest 75% 11.74
Jurassic World Evolution 75% 8.74
Kerbal Space Program 75% 7.5
Killing Floor 2 75% 1.75
Madden NFL 21 75% 13.74
NBA 2K21 75% 12.49
Planet Coaster 75% 7.49
Prison Architect 75% 5.94
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 75% 12.49
Stellaris 75% 8.74
Surviving Mars 75% 6.74
The Escapists 2 75% 4.99
Two Point Hospital 75% 6.24
Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Martyr 75% 8.49
Warhammer: Vermintide 2 75% 5.94
XCOM® 2 75% 8.74
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ 76% 4.79
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War 76% 7.43
Need for Speed™ Heat 79% 12.59
Bloons TD 6 80% 1.43
Castle Crashers® 80% 1.99
Darkest Dungeon® 80% 3.79
Dragon Age™ Inquisition 80% 6.99
JUMP FORCE 80% 9.99
Left 4 Dead 2 80% 1.43
Skullgirls 2nd Encore 80% 3.89
The Crew™ 2 80% 8.39
The Witcher® 3: Wild Hunt 80% 4.99
Titanfall® 2 80% 4.99
Muse Dash 83% 0.5
DRAGON BALL FighterZ 85% 6.74
Far Cry® 5 85% 7.49
GUILTY GEAR Xrd -REVELATOR- 85% 3.44
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ 85% 5.24
People Playground 85% 1.07
Sniper Elite 4 85% 5.99
SOULCALIBUR VI 85% 7.49
TEKKEN 7 85% 5.24
We Happy Few 85% 6.74
The Sims™ 4 88% 4.19
Black Desert 90% 0.89
NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER 90% 3.99
PAYDAY 2 90% 0.74
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun 90% 3.49

 

Conclusions (Steam Summer Sale 2021)

Firstly, it goes without saying that without the help of lots of coffee and chocolate digestives this data entry and analysis would not have happened. But we should also say that without the zero-profit work done by moderators on Reddit and the owners of SteamDB, this data would not have been gathered at all. We would highly recommend you check out both r/GameDeals and SteamDB, and support them however you can.

2021 Sale Analysis

  1. Of the above list, over 95% of the games we checked had been discounted in either March, April or May 2021.
  2. In the preceding months, games were discounted heavily and within 25% of the Summer Sale discounted price. Example: A game that had 90% off during the Summer Sale was 75% off in the previous 3 months.
  3. The Steam Summer Sale price is usually the same as the historical low price of the game in previous months/years

Our focus was on games that had at least a 50% discount, so you may find that discounts below this have different data when it comes to big sales. That said, we are looking for true bargains, so 50% - 90% off were the most attractive for us.

Historically, games will not discount much further than their historical low price. Essentially, if developers and publishers dropped their price to 20% the last five times they had a discount, don't expect it to drop any lower than 20% in the Summer Sale.

As you can see from Becastled, below, the price has never dropped any lower than 20% off, until recently - the discount is 25% off.

 

Becastled price change over time - Steam sales

 

Using this logic, you would expect that in the Steam Summer Sale 2022, the price will be discounted no more than 25% off.

To muddy the waters a little, Population: One, on the other hand had a discount of 35% off (1) in the run up to the Steam Summer Sale 2021, and then was discounted by 30% in the sale (2).

 

Population: One lowest recorded price

 

Population: One pricing over time and Steam sale prices

 

When To Buy

Of course, the million dollar question is - should I wait for the Summer Sale?

From our findings, the best advice is as follows: -

  1. Start adding games to your wishlist from the beginning March, ahead of the Summer Sale. This way, you can see discounts as they happen in the preceding 3 months
  2. The next time you get an email notification that the game on your wishlist has been discounted, head over to SteamDB and check the price history and store prices table.
  3. If the discounted price is the same as the lowest recorded price, you should purchase the game.
  4. If the discounted price is within 25% of the lowest recorded price, you should probably wait for the Steam Summer Sale.

The lowest recorded price is the key, here. If a game is £10 at regular price and you see a discount taking it to £7.50 (25% off), but the lowest recorded price is actually £6.50 (35% off), then the Summer Sale will usually be closer to that.

Game Predictions For Summer Sale 2022

You made it this far, so now you are probably wondering which games we predict will be discounted in the Steam Summer Sale 2022. If you are confident in our calculations and findings above, then thank you. We hope to revisit this blog post and either eat crow publicly, or pat ourselves on the back.

The games below are plucked right from the juicy "Most Played Games" list on SteamDB. We've included a predicted discount, too!

Game Predicted Discount
NARAKA: BLADEPOINT 30%
Dread Hunger 20%
GTA V 50%
Rust 33% - 50%
FIFA 22 50%+
Dead by Daylight 50%
Hearts of Iron IV 75%
Terraria 50%
Euro Truck Simulator 2 75%
Don't Starve Together 66%
Red Dead Redemption 2 50%
Stardew Valley 40%
7 Days to Die 70%
Monster Hunter: World, Iceborne Master Edition 34%
Cities: Skylines 75%
New World Standard Edition 25%
Hunt: Showdown 50%
RimWorld 10%

 

What's On Your Wishlist?

Why not ask us our predictions for games on your wishlist?

If you'd like us to check your wishlist games with our highly scientific method, head over to our Twitter and ask away!

#CCLPredicts