Steam Summer Sale 2022 - Game Predictions and Discounts

 

 

It doesn't matter that we probably won't get round to playing that indie modern classic or intriguing puzzle-platformer for nearly three months. It doesn't matter that we bought a DLC for a game we haven't touched for six months. What matters is - it was a bargain.

The interesting thing about the Steam Summer Sale is that it is entirely unpredictable. There are always shock discounts on big titles, and there are always surprises in store for gamers. But is it entirely unpredictable? We investigated the possibility of predicting the games that will appear in the sale. This extremely scientific and mathematical endeavour was carried out with one main goal: to look back in July 2022 and see if we were right.

How The Predictions Were Made

Although the gamers of Reddit would have you believe there is no way to predict the Steam Summer Sale games (or any sale for that matter) we found that there is some credence in looking at historical data. Some Redditors offered their way of predicting games only to be shot down by the cynical few, and it seems the maths just weren't strong enough to hold up to the glare of the most divisive community on earth.

The science & maths at CCL, however, is very strong.

Step 1: Don't Look Back In Anger

The first thing we needed to do was look at the Steam Summer Sale 2021, to see which games were discounted. This was not a pleasant experience, for the most part, considering we were basically looking at a list of games we could have bought. It turns out I had missed out on the much-loved shinobi action adventure Sekiro at 50% off.

The selection of games was vast, but only a handful of surprise discounts on the AAA titles. Indie developers got their moment in the sun, however, with excellent discounts on gems like Don't Starve Together, Fall Guys and Valheim. There were also a few hidden classics like Hearts of Iron IV and Banner Saga Deluxe Pack.

As it turned out, Reddit was quite jaded last year, and less than pleased with the selection of games in the 2021 Summer Sale:

It was at this point the spreadsheets were built. We began to list all of the titles that appeared in the Steam Summer Sale of 2021, and noted the price of each game. Special thanks to the hugely valued work the moderators do over at r/GameDeals. I pooled all of the data from this thread, and entered it into a master spreadsheet of 357 games over 14 days of the Steam Summer Sale 2021.

Step 2: Keep Your Eye On The Money

The next step was going to be a little more difficult. We were going to track back over the price history of the list of games on sale and see when the most recent discount appeared. We were looking to find any correlation between recent discounts and Steam Sale discounts.

It made the most sense to only include games that had a 50% discount or better. We would be using data from SteamDB, which is easily the most reliable database of Steam prices and historical data.

We would then take this list of games, and check if they had been discounted in the last three months (March, April, and May 2021).

An excellent example would be Arizona Sunshine. This was in the Summer Sale for 50% off. Below, the rectangle box shows the Summer Sale period from June 24th, and the arrows show the other two discounted prices in April and May.

All that remained was to do this for the 205 games that were discounted 50% or more.

The games that made it to the final list were:

Conclusions (Steam Summer Sale 2021)

Firstly, it goes without saying that without the help of lots of coffee and chocolate digestives this data entry and analysis would not have happened. But we should also say that without the zero-profit work done by moderators on Reddit and the owners of SteamDB, this data would not have been gathered at all. We would highly recommend you check out both r/GameDeals and SteamDB, and support them however you can.

2021 Sale Analysis

1. Of the above list, over 95% of the games we checked had been discounted in either March, April or May 2021.
2. In the preceding months, games were discounted heavily and within 25% of the Summer Sale discounted price. Example: A game that had 90% off during the Summer Sale was 75% off in the previous 3 months.
3. The Steam Summer Sale price is usually the same as the historical low price of the game in previous months/years

Our focus was on games that had at least a 50% discount, so you may find that discounts below this have different data when it comes to big sales. That said, we are looking for true bargains, so 50% - 90% off were the most attractive for us.

Historically, games will not discount much further than their historical low price. Essentially, if developers and publishers dropped their price to 20% the last five times they had a discount, don't expect it to drop any lower than 20% in the Summer Sale.

As you can see from Becastled, below, the price has never dropped any lower than 20% off, until recently - the discount is 25% off.

Using this logic, you would expect that in the Steam Summer Sale 2022, the price will be discounted no more than 25% off.

To muddy the waters a little, Population: One, on the other hand had a discount of 35% off (1) in the run up to the Steam Summer Sale 2021, and then was discounted by 30% in the sale (2).

When To Buy

Of course, the million dollar question is - should I wait for the Summer Sale?

From our findings, the best advice is as follows: -

1. Start adding games to your wishlist from the beginning March, ahead of the Summer Sale. This way, you can see discounts as they happen in the preceding 3 months
2. The next time you get an email notification that the game on your wishlist has been discounted, head over to SteamDB and check the price history and store prices table.
3. If the discounted price is the same as the lowest recorded price, you should purchase the game.
4. If the discounted price is within 25% of the lowest recorded price, you should probably wait for the Steam Summer Sale.

The lowest recorded price is the key, here. If a game is £10 at regular price and you see a discount taking it to £7.50 (25% off), but the lowest recorded price is actually £6.50 (35% off), then the Summer Sale will usually be closer to that.

Game Predictions For Summer Sale 2022

You made it this far, so now you are probably wondering which games we predict will be discounted in the Steam Summer Sale 2022. If you are confident in our calculations and findings above, then thank you. We hope to revisit this blog post and either eat crow publicly, or pat ourselves on the back.

The games below are plucked right from the juicy "Most Played Games" list on SteamDB. We've included a predicted discount, too!

What's On Your Wishlist?

Why not ask us our predictions for games on your wishlist?

If you'd like us to check your wishlist games with our highly scientific method, head over to our Twitter and ask away!

#CCLPredicts